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Alan McKinnon – Professor of Logistics

THE 
LOGISTICS BLOG

Current issues in logistics and transport

Logistics in a Hotter World

This summer’s heatwaves, droughts and wild fires are just a foretaste of what is to come. For example, in its high emission scenario, the UK Met Office forecasts a 20-fold increase in ‘hot spells’ requiring public health warnings by 2070. What lessons should logistics managers be drawing from yet another year of extreme weather events?

There should be greater recognition that logistics is a victim as well as a cause of climate change, requiring more rapid adaptation to weather-related threats that cannot be averted in the short to medium term.  Weather systems are changing more quickly than many climate models predicted, demanding urgent action that cannot be left to future generations of logistics managers.

Extreme weather shouldn’t be seen in isolation.  It often interacts with other causes of supply chain disruption to amplify their combined impact.  A current example is the exceptionally low water level on the Rhine.  This is impeding barge movements of the coal that Germany needs to replace the gas imports being blocked by Russia’s ‘weaponising’ of energy supply chains.  

The vulnerability of inland waterways to drought and of railways to extreme heat also carries implications for the use of modal shift as a means of decarbonising logistics.  Companies have to consider the climate risk profiles of these low-carbon transport modes when deciding where to transfer freight from road.  In the case of rail, the risk of heat causing track to buckle and overhead cabling to sag can be reduced by ‘re-optimising’ the network for a higher temperatures, though the seasonal variability of UK weather makes this difficult.

Preparing logistical systems for a hotter future extends well beyond transport infrastructure. The welfare of the workforce in warehouses and vehicles and the quality of many of the products they store, handle and move will require much greater temperature control, with all that entails for carbon emissions.  At a more fundamental level, the supply chains of products whose supply and demand is particularly sensitive to heat and drought will have to be reconfigured at national, continental and global levels.  This will alter the pattern of demand for logistics services.

While water consumption within logistics is relatively low by comparison with other sectors, the redistribution of water from wet to dry regions is likely to become a more important logistical activity. Earlier this year, the Pali district in India became almost totally dependent on the supply of water by rail in 2-million litre tanker trains. In recent weeks, over 100 French municipalities have had to receive deliveries of drinking water by road.  The UK Environment Agency points out that long distance water transfers ‘have the greatest potential for increasing drought resilience’ but acknowledges that creating a new national pipeline grid would present major physical, financial, regulatory and legal challenges.

Finally, countries will need to ramp-up logistical support for fire and rescue services for which demand can grow exponentially during hot, dry periods.  They, after all, are at the front-line of the climate emergency.

Logistics Manager Sept 2022

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© Professor Alan McKinnon 2025

Kuehne Logistics University
Hamburg
Germany

contactme@alanmckinnon.co.uk

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© Professor Alan McKinnon 2025

 

Kuehne Logistics University
Hamburg
Germany

 

contactme@alanmckinnon.co.uk

 

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