A UK government report in 1975 suggested that lorry traffic would grow ‘in perpetuity’ – in other words, forever1. One of its main critics, Dr. John Adams, then felt at liberty to extrapolate its forecast well into the future, to 2205 in fact, when half the population would have to be lorry drivers to move the projected amount of road freight2.
What the government forecasters failed to anticipate was that within a few decades there would be a chronic lack of people willing to drive lorries. This shortage is now particularly acute in the UK because of the combined impact of Brexit, the pandemic delaying HGV tests and the IR35 tax reforms that took effect in April3. Underlying the current crisis, however, are structural employment problems in road haulage that date back many years and afflict many countries.
A global study we did for the World Bank4 on logistics skills shortages found 20 years of literature on truck driver shortages and several parliamentary inquiries. Other countries such as the US, Germany, Brazil, South Africa, India and Japan have been wrestling with this problem for many years, often poaching drivers from neighbouring states. There has been a westerly migration of truck drivers within Europe and from central Asia to fill vacancies in Poland and Romania. The post-Brexit return of around 15,000 EU drivers from the UK5 is now reversing this flow and contributing to what the RHA is warning could become ‘catastrophic’ for UK supply chains6.
Following a recent survey of 777 road transport companies in 23 countries, the International Road Transport Union (IRU)7 concluded that the ‘driver shortage threatens the functioning of road transport, supply chains, trade, the economy, and ultimately employment and citizens’ welfare’. Its wide-ranging assessment of the problem suggests there are fundamental issues to be addressed and few quick fixes.
Much of the problem is demographic. Very few young drivers have been entering the haulage industry to replace the many who will be retiring over the next decade. Worldwide the average age of a truck driver is 50 (in the UK it is 47). Only 2% of truck drivers worldwide are female8. So what is making lorry driving such an unattractive career option for the young and for women? And why are so many people with HGV licenses (estimated to be 600,000 in the UK alone9) not actually driving trucks. In most countries the answer lies in four words: image, status, pay and conditions.
The International Labour Organisation10 may have lauded truck drivers as ‘heroes of the road’ during the pandemic, but the UK government still doesn’t regard lorry driving as a skilled enough occupation to qualify foreign drivers for ‘skilled worker visas’ 11. Given the critical role they play in the economy, the demands and stresses of the job and the increasingly complex world of regulation and IT within which they operate, lorry drivers deserve much more respect and higher rewards. It will after all be many years, though much sooner than 2205, before mass use of autonomous vehicles consigns lorry driving to history.
References:
1. Department of the Environment (1975) ‘Standard Forecasts of Vehicles and Traffic’ Technical Memorandum H3/75.
2. Adams, John (1981) ‘Transport Planning Vision and Practice’ Routledge Kegan Paul, London (p.205) (Professor John Adams was my PhD supervisor at University College London.)
3. Exodus of EU truckers leaves UK hauliers facing acute driver shortages Financial Times, 9 May 2021
4. McKinnon, Alan, Flöthmann, Christoph; Hoberg, Kai; Busch, Christina (2017) ‘Logistics Skills, Competences and Training: a Global Overview’ World Bank, Washington DC.
5. ‘UK confronted with worsening truck driver shortage’ Lloyds Loading List, 4 June 2021
6. ‘RHA launches 12-point plan to avert “catastrophic” HGV driver shortage’ Motor Transport, 7 June 2021.
7. ‘New IRU survey shows driver shortages to soar in 2021’ IRU, Geneva. 3 March 2021
8. ibid
9. Smith, Kieran (2021) ‘A perfect storm of elevated demand and reduced supply in the UK haulage sector 2021: investigating HGV driver demand & supply’ Driver Require. 19 May 2021
10. ‘Help needed for the “heroes” of the road’ International Labour Organisation (ILO), Geneva 19 March 2021
11. Financial Times, op.cit.