Current issues in logistics and transport

This is not so much a prediction as recognition of a high-impact low-probability (HILP) event that could seriously disrupt transport and logistics over the next year or so. This is the dark side of the lovely aurorae borealis we have been observing over UK skies in recent months. Associated with the solar flares that cause these visual spectacles are coronal mass ejections (CMEs), clouds of high-energy magnetised particles blasted in our direction by the sun. Rather unusually, a cluster of three CMEs hit the earth between November 10 and 12 this year, causing possibly the largest solar ‘super-storm’ in over two decades .
Such events pose a significant risk to power grids, global navigation and positioning systems, communication networks and aviation, upon which transport systems and supply chains heavily rely. Two CMEs in quick succession in 1989 caused power outages and communication breakdowns in North America, particularly Quebec . According to the Royal Academy of Engineering, six super-grid transformers in England and Wales could be damaged by ‘geomagnetic disturbances’ and take ‘between weeks and months’ to repair .
A recent DfT-MetOffice paper outlined the vulnerability of transport operations and infrastructure to severe space weather and listed several measures being applied in the UK to mitigate the related risks. While very welcome, these measures would provide only limited protection against extreme CME events like those which occurred in the past when our dependence on electrical, communication and satellite-based systems was much lower than today.
For many years the UK’s National Risk Register has identified severe space weather as a major hazard. The latest edition in January 2025 gave it 4 out of 5 ratings for both likelihood and potential impact. Its 5-25% estimate of the annual probability of occurrence may have to be raised in the light of the abnormal solar activity witnessed in recent weeks and as the current 11-year solar cycle reaches its peak in 2026.
It is reassuring that the recent surge in CMEs caused little or no disruption to transport and logistics operations, but their resilience to space weather will sooner or later be more forcefully tested.