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Alan McKinnon – Professor of Logistics

THE 
LOGISTICS BLOG

Current issues in logistics and transport

Supply chain collaboration – overcoming scepticism and building momentum

Back in 2004 a large survey of supply chain managers by Accenture identified ‘collaborating with multiple partners’ as their greatest challenge.  It remains a major challenge.  Over the intervening period, numerous examples have emerged of big companies sharing logistics assets and thereby saving money, reducing emissions and often improving service quality.   The most celebrated of these collaborations have been in the ‘fast-moving consumer goods’ sector between companies such as Unilever and Kimberly-Clark, Nestle and Pepsico and P&G and Tupperware. Given the rich potential benefits of such collaborations, their rate of formation has been disappointingly slow.  There is evidence, however, that momentum is building.

Among the companies attending the ECR / IGD conference on ‘Reducing Wasted Miles’ on April 21 in Nottingham there was certainly strong commitment to explore new opportunities for collaboration[1].  This latest ECR / IGD campaign joins many earlier initiatives by ECR, ELUPEG, Lean and Green and the EU-funded project CO3 to get companies to work together.   I see these programmes as moving us from the first ‘opportunistic’ phase of supply chain collaboration, which relied on chance encounters between like-minded logistics managers, to a ‘systematic’ phase when companies routinely seek out possible logistics matches  more strategically.  This requires a change in the corporate mindset and a recognition that merging logistics operations offers greater efficiency gains than anything that a single company can do on its own.

In a presentation to the ECR / IGD conference I argued that mindset was one of six conditions beginning with the letter M which must be met to foster logistical collaboration.   Others include motives, which are still primarily commercial but acquiring a green hue, metrics, which must be defined in a way that accurately and fairly tracks the performance of a collaboration and the models the now exist to help optimise  costs and benefits among partners.  Ministries also have a role to play in ensuring that competition law doesn’t obstruct logistical collaborations which are patently in the public interest.  Finally, collaborative initiatives must be well aligned with market trends and properly engage logistics service providers, allaying any fears that they might have that collaboration simply involves shippers ganging up to squeeze their margins.

If there were a seventh M, it would be momentum, because too often in the past efforts to promote collaboration have petered out leaving managers sceptical about its longer term prospects.  This time should be different. We are now entering the Sharing Economy, when the sharing of assets is becoming a guiding economic principle at all levels from the individual citizen to the global corporation. We now have the analytical tools to model, plan and manage collaborations along and between supply chains.   And above all we have the favourable experiences of growing numbers of companies that have ‘taken the plunge’ and become keen advocates of the new collaborative paradigm.

[1] http://igd.com/reducingwastedmiles

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Next big thing in the sharing economy?

Co-authored with Wolfgang Lehmacher, Head of Supply Chain and Transport Industry, World Economic Forum USA

Crowd shipping image

Reproduced from World Economic Forum blog, June 2015. World Economic Forum logo
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/the-next-big-thing-in-the-sharing-economy/

Yesterday we were driving cars to reach work, to go shopping, or leave on vacation. But all of that might change in tomorrow’s sharing economy. Many of our fellow drivers have become “chauffeurs for hire” on platforms like Uber or Lyft. However, is another revolution just about to take off: “crowd-shipping”, whereby every day drivers turn into micro DHL or UPS couriers?

The sharing economy enables new ways of transportation by connecting those who need parcel deliveries with those who are on the road. The main drivers of so called “crowd-shipping” are the rapid growth in online retailing, the desire to find new ways of overcoming the traditional problems of ‘last mile’ delivery and increasing interest, in some socio-economic groups, in supplementing earnings with casual work. Global B2C online sales are expected to grow from $1 trillion in 2012 to around $2.4 trillion by 2017. In China alone the number of packages transported by express delivery surged by 820% in the six years ending 2014. Across the globe capacity of ‘last mile’ delivery systems will have to expand enormously to cope with the expected volume growth.

Crowd-shipping offers a means of better exploiting our under-utilized cars through picking up and dropping off parcels along the routes people are taking anyway. How does the model work? People offering to carry parcels (which we will call ‘couriers’) and those wishing to use the service download the app and register with the website, for example with a Facebook link. The user enters details of the parcel, its collection and delivery points and, in some cases, the amount they are prepared to pay for delivery. Potential couriers then bid for the work, competing on delivery time and cost. The user decides which bid to accept. The online platform gives the successful courier a parcel number, address details and access to a messaging service for communication with the user. Once the parcel is delivered, the recipient confirms receipt through the platform and the courier’s account is credited with the agreed fee.

Companies providing online platforms for crowd-shipping differ in their market focus, although the described way of operating is similar. Some platforms cater more for professional couriers: for example, it is estimated that, ‘at Zipments 95% of couriers are professional delivery folks with more than four years of experience’. Others like Rideshare, MyWay and Shippies rely on ordinary people. Deliv tends to specialize in deliveries from shopping malls of products that were either bought there or purchased online on a ‘click and collect’ basis.

In the United States or China for example, governments adopt to a large extent a fairly liberal policy to logistics innovation, though the German government’s decision to ban Uber illustrates how a web-based application can be outlawed for essentially commercial reasons.

The legacy of the financial crisis in many countries has forced a lot of people to search for new ways of generating extra income or subsidising their travel costs. Crowd-shipping allows us to carry and deliver parcels at highly attractive prices with low incremental burden on the environment, by people who can earn some extra money and, possibly, the satisfaction of supporting their local neighbourhood.

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Scottish Independence: implications for logistics and pricing

Scotland’s economic interdependence with other parts of the UK has been thoroughly researched in financial and fiscal terms, but little reference has so far been made to its physical manifestation in the millions of tonnes of freight that are moved around the country. Perhaps this merits some attention in the independence debate?

An analysis of companies’ logistical systems reveals a very high degree of supply chain integration between Scotland and England. Over the past few decades, many large manufacturers and retailers have centralised their UK distribution operations in the English Midlands, supplying the whole country from a few large logistics hubs. 40% of the new distribution centre capacity built since 1995 has been concentrated in the East and West Midlands, with only around 3% of it located in Scotland. The major supermarket chains and a handful of large non-food retailers, like Marks and Spencer and Argos, regionalise their distribution and have warehouses in Scotland, but that leaves a substantial northward flow of retail and industrial products from supply points south of the border.

There are strong economic arguments for organising logistics at a national scale within the UK. This allows companies to make large savings in inventory and warehousing costs. The more you centralise your inventory the less you need to hold and the bigger your warehouses the lower unit costs of storing and handling the goods. The higher efficiency of centralised distribution translates into lower prices in the shops.

If Scotland became independent the distribution of supplies from warehouses in England to shops and businesses in Scotland, many of which are currently internal inventory transfers, would become international trade. As Scotland would not belong to the EU in the short to medium term, this would be international trade between two countries that did not belong to the same trading bloc, with the extra administrative costs and possibly tariffs that would bring. This might encourage companies to hold inventory in Scotland and move back to a more decentralised distribution model, but this would be a very costly option and result in higher prices in the shops.

At present most companies equalize prices across the UK, despite the fact that it is more expensive to supply the Scotland than the UK market as a whole. This higher cost is not simply due to Scotland’s relative peripherality. It is also a consequence of the freight traffic imbalance that exists between Scotland and England. Significantly more road freight flows into Scotland than goes in the opposite direction, making it difficult for companies to find return loads. It is estimated that in 2010 (the last year for which we have data) around 190,000 lorries travelled south to England empty. Getting a revenue-earning load in only one direction makes distribution much more expensive. The lower population densities in Scotland also inflate the unit costs of supplying Scottish consumers.

The system of uniform pricing which many companies currently apply across the UK effectively cross-subsidises Scottish consumers and businesses. There is no guarantee that they would continue to do this if Scotland were an independent country. Indeed this would be unlikely if independence brought higher trade barrier and logistics restructuring costs. The additional administrative costs associated with supplying retail outlets in a foreign country would increase the logistical cost penalty in serving the Scottish market. This penalty would increase if Scotland were to cease using Sterling and English-based companies became exposed to currency exchange costs and risks.

The organisation of logistics on a UK national scale also works to Scotland’s advantage in terms of international freight flows. The vast majority of Scotland’s imports are channelled through ports and airports in the south of England. Scotland has no deep-sea container port and must rely on Felixstowe, Southampton, Tilbury etc for most of its imports from other parts of the world. Much of Scotland’s airfreight trade goes through the major English air cargo hubs at Heathrow, Stansted and East Midlands airports. Almost all the roll-on roll-off lorry traffic carrying goods to and from Scotland enters the country through English ports such as Dover, Harwich and Hull. Some of these import consignments travel directly to Scotland, but a large proportion of Scotland-bound imports are stored and handled in distribution centres in and around the Midlands – again mostly supplied from there on a uniform delivered price basis.

Scotland’s heavy dependence on freight terminals south of the border can be easily explained. As a peripheral country with a relatively small population and industrial base, it has difficulty attracting direct international freight services. The traffic imbalance problem is even more acute in the case of these international flows. Scotland also lacks the freight traffic volumes to achieve the economies of scale enjoyed by the UK’s major sea and air freight hubs, all of which are located in England. Scottish exporters and importers have long taken advantage of the lower freight rates and higher service frequencies that they can obtain at these ports and airports.

To use the logistics jargon, Scotland is likely to remain a ‘spoke’ rather than a ‘hub’ in global logistics networks whether it remains part of the UK or becomes independent. It is likely too that it will continue to have most of its supply chains routed through English ports, airports and distribution centres. There is no doubt that these supply chains will keep Scottish businesses and consumers adequately supplied – the question is at what cost. An independent Scotland would inevitably incur higher trade barrier and transaction costs. These, coupled with an erosion of uniform pricing, would significantly inflate Scottish logistics costs, raising the cost of living and possibly impairing business competitiveness.

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A European perspective on Indian trucking

Written for Kuehne Logistics University publication
Click here to download PDF of this blog

As a European logistics specialist travelling on the Indian road network for the first time, I was struck by the virtual absence of articulated trucks, comprising a tractor unit and trailer. Most of the road freight seems to be moving in small, open-topped rigid vehicles with two or three axles and brightly coloured liveries. In fact, at last count, they represented around 85% of all trucks on Indian roads. From a European perspective, the Indian road freight system may seem inefficient. After all, there are economies of scale in road haulage: the bigger and heavier the load, the lower are the unit transport costs per tonne‐km or cubic‐metre‐km.

Indian rigid truck

Indian rigid truck

The standard Indian rigid trucks have a cubic capacity of around 30 m3 and gross weights ranging between 9 tonnes (on 2 axles) and 25 tonnes (on 3 axles).

By comparison, the main ‘workhorse’ of the European road freight sector is an articulated 5‐axle vehicle with a 13.6 metre trailer, offering 82 m of space and having a maximum gross weight of 40 tonnes.

European articulated truck

European articulated truck

Surely then, it would be in India’s interests to move to a truck fleet more closely resembling that of European countries.

Not necessarily.

One must be cautious about recommending the transfer of logistics technologies from one country to another. There are often very good reasons, for example, for international differences in the composition of national truck fleets.

In several respects the Indian truck fleet is probably well adapted to the country’s physical and economic circumstances. Much of the country’s road infrastructure would be unable to accommodate articulated vehicles with large turning circles, while relatively few of the country’s factories, warehouses and shops have the reception facilities and manoeuvring space required by these vehicles.

Most Indian carriers would also lack the capital to acquire European‐style articulated vehicles. They are generally very small, predominantly owner‐driver businesses operating in an intensely competitive market, surviving on tiny margins and very low rates of return. Even if they were able to afford a large articulated vehicle, the nature of the Indian logistical system would not allow them to exploit the additional flexibility offered by ‘articulation’. In Europe there are typically around 1.7 trailers for every tractor unit allowing companies to decouple loading and transport operations. Most Indian truckers would lack the resources to acquire additional trailers and control their use. Perhaps the main explanation of the dearth of articulated trucks in India is that, at this stage in the country’s development, they are not actually needed. Bulky, primary products still make up a large proportion of the commodities moved by road. These are generally dense products that do not require the additional space that an articulated trailer offers.

Also, relatively little of the freight moved by road in India is conveyed on pallets or in roll cages, unitised handling equipment that takes up additional space. The very low labour costs in India make it more economical to ‘handball’ loose product, thereby maximising vehicle loading and eliminating the need for unitised and mechanised handling. Low labour rates also weaken the economy of scale argument for bigger trucks. In Europe the labour costs typically represent around a third of total road transport costs; in India it is around 10%. Procurement practices also influence the demand for road services and hence truck capacity. In many sectors, goods tend to be ordered in smaller quantities than in Europe reducing the need for large vehicles.

Although the current dominance of small rigid trucks can be explained and probably justified, it is likely that as the Indian economy develops, as its transport infrastructure is upgraded and as the logistics service sector evolves, greater numbers of articulated vehicles will appear on the roads. The Transport Corporation of India, the country’s largest logistics company, estimates that between 5 and 8 billion rupees (70 and 115 million Euros) could be saved annually if the national fleet of articulated trucks was increased by 10%. These savings would accrue mainly from reductions in fuel consumption and road wear and tear. The World Bank has also advocated a switch to articulated vehicles. Given the relatively long truck replacement cycle in India, however, it will probably several decades before India becomes as dependent on the articulated truck as European countries.

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Life without trucks

Reproduced from World Economic Forum blog, December 2011.
World Economic Forum logohttps://www.weforum.org/agenda/2011/12/life-without-trucks/

Can you imagine a world without trucks? It’s not a scenario that keeps many people awake at night, but perhaps it should. If, for whatever reason, road haulage operations were suspended, the resulting dislocation of supply chains would result in economic collapse within a few days. This is the conclusion of a study I have carried out of the likely impact on the UK of a total shut-down of its road freight system.

This eventuality is not as far-fetched as it may seem. In September 2000, steep increases in fuel prices provoked some UK hauliers and farmers into blockading oil refineries and blocking roads, causing a national crisis within three or four days. Since then strikes have seriously disrupted trucking operations in France, Spain and Portugal (June 2008), Australia (July 2008), India (January 2009), Greece (September 2010) and Shanghai (April 2011).

The trucking sector is particularly prone to this type of action. In most countries, its profit margins are very tight. This leaves carriers’ finances vulnerable to cost increases, particularly of fuel, whose price is highly susceptible to global events, and which typically accounts for around a third of total haulage costs. Although the trucking industry is highly fragmented, protests over prices, wages, taxes, tolls and regulations can precipitate mass action. Carriers and drivers know that such action can have a swift and debilitating effect on an economy giving them industrial ‘muscle’.

The conclusions of the UK study were far-reaching and profound. After only five days, the country would see retail stocks of most grocery products exhausted, almost all manufacturing closed down, all elective surgery in hospitals suspended, half the national car fleet without fuel, mail and parcel deliveries terminated and retail banking seriously disrupted by the collapse of the ‘cash logistics’ system. As the analysis made no allowance for panic buying, the reality would in all probability be far worse.

Individually, businesses can do little to protect themselves against such a sudden and systemic withdrawal of a vital transport service.  Traditional business continuity techniques would provide only marginal relief.  High-level contingency planning, involving close government and industry collaboration, would be required to deal with an emergency of this magnitude.

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Logistics – our life support system

Reproduced from World Economic Forum blog, September 2011. World Economic Forum logo
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2011/09/logistics-our-life-support-system/

When logistics works, as it does almost all the time, nobody notices. It becomes an invisible service that we all take for granted. For example, when we shop in the typical department store, we seldom give a thought to all the complex processes that have brought tens of thousands of products together in that one location from all over the world in sufficient quantities to meet our demands. Thousands of separate supply chains converge on that one point to give us the level of product availability we have grown to expect. Indeed every service we use and every product we buy depend on elaborate supply networks that we know very little about – until they fail.

It is only when these networks are seriously disrupted, by bad weather, industrial disputes, earthquakes or whatever, that logistics tends to get news coverage. Then journalists all too frequently refer to ‘logistical nightmares’, instilling a negative impression of logistics in the public mind. Many people also resent having to share the road network with trucks and complain about the adverse effects of freight transport and warehousing on the environment. They sometimes fail to see the connection between these sources of irritation and pollution and the goods they buy in the shop. Little wonder that logistics managers often feel they do not get the understanding and appreciation they deserve.

Efforts are now being made, however, to raise the public profile of logistics and make people realise just how vital it is to modern life. In the UK, the Freight Transport Association has launched a campaign called Love Logistics, while the parcel carrier UPS is conveying a similar sentiment in its global press and television advertising. In April this year Germany held a national logistics day, when trade fairs and company visits were organised to promote the sector and the Chancellor, Angela Merkel, gave a speech on the subject.

The World Economic Forum’s decision in 2010 to establish a Logistics and Supply Chain Industry Agenda Council also recognised the critical importance of this activity to global economic and social well-being. The publication of the Council’s first report (see below) should raise awareness of the major challenges facing the logistics sector. Keeping logistical systems, upon which we all rely, running efficiently, sustainably and reliably in the years ahead will not be easy.

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© Professor Alan McKinnon 2025

Kuehne Logistics University
Hamburg
Germany

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© Professor Alan McKinnon 2025

 

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